Dunedin Property Prices in 2025: Has the Market Hit Bottom?
By Martin Whangapirita – Harcourts Dunedin
Now halfway through 2025, it’s clear the Dunedin property market has shifted out of the freefall seen in 2022–23. But it hasn’t quite moved into recovery either. Instead, we’re in a new phase — one defined by stabilisation, selective urgency, and shifting buyer psychology.
National headlines have focused on the Reserve Bank’s decision to pause Official Cash Rate cuts, leaving borrowers and sellers alike in a holding pattern. But when you zoom in on the local Dunedin data, a clearer picture emerges — and it’s one that rewards realism and preparation.
📊 Dunedin Market Snapshot: Jan–Jun 2025
Here's how the market has performed across key indicators:
| Month | Median Sale Price | Days on Market | Sales Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | $608,000 | 44 | 111 |
| Feb 2025 | $615,000 | 38 | 177 |
| Mar 2025 | $599,000 | 39 | 224 |
| Apr 2025 | $595,000 | 51 | 164 |
| May 2025 | $600,000 | 41 | 208 |
| Jun 2025 | $595,000 | 58 | 156 |
🔍 What’s Driving the Numbers?
The data shows a market that is neither crashing nor climbing. Median prices have held within a $20,000 band since January, suggesting we’ve found a floor. However, June brought a notable shift: fewer sales (down from May) and longer time on market.
This slowdown in June likely reflects three factors:
- Buyers adjusting expectations after the OCR pause
- Vendors misreading buyer urgency and pricing too high
- A seasonal dip typical of mid-winter, especially in a post-COVID cycle
It’s worth noting that across many suburbs, particularly at the lower and mid-range, well-priced and well-presented properties are still selling — but the frenzy of March and May has cooled slightly.
Suburb Insights
- North Dunedin continues to perform for investors, with student rentals remaining resilient
- Mosgiel shows strength from upsizing families looking for space and sun
- Roslyn and Maori Hill remain stable, though prestige buyers are moving cautiously
⏳ Market Outlook: Realism Is the New Strategy
While no one is expecting an aggressive upswing, there is a growing sense that the worst is behind us. With inflation easing and the Reserve Bank signalling data dependence rather than commitment to further hikes or cuts, the property market is adjusting to this ‘new normal’.
Sellers with realistic pricing strategies and good presentation can still secure strong results — particularly ahead of the anticipated spring listing surge, when more homes are likely to hit the market.
For buyers, this phase offers opportunity too: more time to make decisions, some negotiating power, and less fear of missing out than in previous cycles.
The key takeaway? The market has stabilised — but strategy matters more than ever.
Martin Whangapirita
Sales Consultant – Harcourts Dunedin
www.mjwhangapirita.co.nz | 021 144 6529
